| The recent hurricanes Katrina and Rita have been | | | | paper, and virtually everything you can buy at |
| powerful reminders of how destructive the forces | | | | stores such as Wal-Mart will be difficult or |
| of nature can be, and how preparation for them | | | | impossible to obtain-for periods of weeks or |
| can mitigate their effects. Avian influenza, | | | | months at a time. This includes the most |
| commonly referred to as "bird flu," is a powerful | | | | important commodity-food. The federal |
| force of nature that we must prepare for-or | | | | government is always telling us to stock up on |
| suffer the potentially devastating health and | | | | emergency supplies for three days. This will not |
| financial consequences. Bird flu is a viral contagious | | | | be sufficient preparation for the coming deadly |
| disease, just like the regular seasonal flu, but it | | | | bird-flu pandemic. There will likely be limited food |
| might turn out to be 70 times more deadly. And, | | | | available in stores. In addition, stores are places |
| because of the nature of the virus, it might be | | | | you want to avoid anyway, because potentially |
| most deadly for healthy children and adults, and | | | | contagious people might be there. Stock up now |
| pregnant women-just like the so-called Spanish flu | | | | so that you have sufficient commodities, including |
| of 1918-19 was. | | | | food, for a period of months. |
| The report of the U.S. National Intelligence | | | | The third area to address is so-called personal |
| Council's 2020 Project, Mapping the Global Future, | | | | protective equipment (PPE), which you will have to |
| identified a global pandemic (an epidemic that is | | | | use, depending upon circumstances. PPE includes |
| worldwide) as the single most important threat to | | | | special face masks, called N95 respirators, which |
| the global economy. According to Shigeru Omi, | | | | help prevent infection through inhalation of the |
| regional director of the World Health Organization, | | | | virus. Remember that avian influenza ("bird flu") is |
| "The world is now in the gravest possible danger | | | | a very contagious disease that can be |
| of a pandemic." And according to Dr. Robert | | | | transmitted through the air. The only way to |
| Webster, a world-renowned influenza researcher | | | | counter this source of infection is through the use |
| at St. Jude's Children's Research Hospital in | | | | of special N95 respirators. These are disposable |
| Memphis, Tennessee, "We could be heading for a | | | | face masks that can be worn for up to eight |
| global catastrophe." Infectious-disease experts | | | | hours. |
| have repeatedly warned that it's not a question of | | | | N95 masks were the type of masks worn by |
| whether a bird-flu pandemic is coming; it's only a | | | | hospital workers during the 2003 severe acute |
| question of when. | | | | respiratory syndrome (SARS) pandemic that |
| Judging from the federal government's incredibly | | | | struck a number of cities around the world, |
| inadequate response at all levels to hurricane | | | | including Toronto, Canada. Surgical masks or other |
| Katrina-which is emblematic of its ineptness in | | | | common face masks, sometimes used when |
| dealing with large national emergencies, its slow | | | | sanding or painting and so forth, are not effective. |
| and superficial response to bird flu to date, and its | | | | Other elements of PPE include disposable latex or |
| lack of leadership on this issue-it is clear that you | | | | vinyl gloves, eye goggles or face shields, gowns |
| cannot count on the government to protect you. | | | | impervious to liquids, and sometimes disposable |
| You must take the initiative to prepare yourself | | | | booties or disposable head caps. Keep in mind that |
| and your family for the coming bird-flu pandemic. | | | | during the pandemic, most people who become |
| There are four essential areas that you must | | | | infected will have to be cared for at home, not in |
| address to prepare for the bird-flu pandemic: 1) | | | | crowded and overwhelmed hospitals. This means |
| "social distancing"; 2) commodities-including food, 3) | | | | that caregivers taking care of loved ones at |
| personal protective equipment (PPE), and 4) | | | | home need to be protected from the virus, just |
| financial preparation. Social distancing refers to | | | | like hospital workers working in hospitals. The only |
| your living and work situations when the pandemic | | | | way to be protected is to wear PPE. (Just |
| strikes. Without going to extremes, you want you | | | | washing your hands-the federal government's |
| and your family to be as far away from other | | | | primary recommendation for caregivers at |
| people as possible. Bird flu is just like the regular | | | | home-will not be enough.) Once the pandemic |
| seasonal flu in that you become infected from | | | | starts, demand for PPE will be huge and supplies |
| other people, not birds. (Although it might be | | | | will be in very short supply-or nonexistent. Buy |
| possible to acquire the viral infection from birds, it | | | | now or suffer the consequences later. |
| is much more likely that, if you do become | | | | The last area that must be addressed before the |
| infected, you will have acquired the virus from | | | | bird-flu pandemic strikes is personal finances. This |
| another person, not a bird.) | | | | is an area that governments at all levels have |
| The bird-flu virus is extremely contagious; it is | | | | been mute on. However, preparing your finances |
| transmitted though casual contact with a | | | | to sustain yourself and your family during (and |
| contagious person (who might not have any | | | | after) the pandemic could prove to be the most |
| symptoms during the first 24 hours of infection), | | | | important area of preparation. Although the |
| through touching contaminated objects, and | | | | bird-flu virus is deadly and many of us will fall ill, |
| through the air. Because of this, you want to stay | | | | most of us will not die from it-only one to two |
| away from people as much as possible, and that | | | | percent of the population will likely die. The vast |
| means spending more time at home. Your children | | | | majority will live-but under what circumstances? |
| will not be at school, they will be home. If your | | | | Think of hurricane Katrina-where most people |
| home is on the 73rd floor in an apartment building | | | | survived-but where hundreds of thousands are |
| in New York City, how are you going to avoid | | | | now homeless and underemployed or unemployed. |
| other people? You might want to think of an | | | | Because of the potentially severe local, national, |
| alternative living situation for a few months. | | | | and international economic consequences of the |
| The same principle applies to your work setting. If | | | | bird-flu pandemic, many of us will suffer financially. |
| you can telecommute, that is the best scenario. If | | | | Businesses around the world will not be able to |
| you don't telecommute now, but because of the | | | | make or distribute products or provide services. |
| type of work you do it might be a possibility, | | | | There will be layoffs and some companies will go |
| discuss it with your employer. If you will have to | | | | out of business altogether. At a minimum, people |
| continue to work closely with others at your job | | | | will be out of work for periods of weeks or |
| site, what can be done there to help protect you | | | | months. Your child or children, if you have any, will |
| and others from infection? How can policies and | | | | be at home-not in school or day care. Will that |
| procedures be amended to minimize contact with | | | | force one parent to stay home from work to |
| coworkers or customers? Are there | | | | care for them? How will you pay your rent or |
| hand-washing stations available? What are your | | | | mortgage and your bills under these |
| employer's plans for dealing with the coming | | | | circumstances? |
| pandemic? Discuss these and related issues with | | | | At Benjamin Franklin said, "An ounce of |
| your employer and coworkers. | | | | prevention is worth a pound of cure." When it |
| The second area that must be addressed is | | | | comes to bird-flu preparation could make the |
| "commodities-including food." There will be sporadic | | | | difference between life and death, how much you |
| difficulties manufacturing or producing | | | | and your family eat, and whether or not you can |
| goods-because workers around the globe will be | | | | pay your bills, including your rent or mortgage. |
| sick or otherwise absent from work. There also | | | | The government will not resolve these issues for |
| will be supply chain disruptions-both because | | | | you. Just like Smoky the Bear's admonition, "Only |
| workers will be sick or otherwise absent from | | | | you can prevent forest fires." Only you can take |
| work, and because of regional, national and/or | | | | stock of this situation and do something about it. |
| international restrictions on travel. These problems | | | | Think about it-and then do something about it. |
| will cause a decrease or the unavailability of most | | | | Bradford Frank, M.D., M.P.H., M.B.A. |
| or all of the products we easily have access to | | | | The Frank Group |
| now. | | | | P.O. |
| Commodities such as soap, toothpaste, toilet | | | | |